Liricon/Plenary based our 2021 unsolicited proposal on government cost estimates, however we were willing to accept higher costs without any increase in the requested financing from the government.
Original Cost Estimate
The new 150km rail line, rolling stock (trains) and stations were estimated by the government to cost $1.5 billion in 2019.
Building most of the new rail line within the existing CP Rail corridor is a fraction (5-10% estimate) of the cost to acquire land and build a new ”greenfield” rail corridor. CABR was estimated to cost $10 million per kilometer while the Green Line LRT, which is typical for greenfield urban rail and LRT projects, is approximately $200 million per kilometer.
Updated Cost Estimate
Government estimated (2019$) capital costs of $1.5 billion. Today with an expanded project scope and increased service levels, expected capital costs are $2.5 + billion.
Liricon/Plenary expect to buy almost three times the number of trains as the original government feasibility study to accommodate the much higher ridership projections which we believe are achievable. Hydrogen powered trains are also more expensive than the diesel trains proposed in the government study. This larger number of more expensive trains will require more infrastructure investment and maintenance and refuelling facilities than contemplated in the original government studies.
Liricon/Plenary after extensive stakeholder consultation has agreed to provide free “people mover” infrastructure and services between four proposed stations at YYC airport providing the multi-modal transit hub and interchanges which provide the foundation for future rail services including high speed rail and regional commuter rail.
Liricon/Plenary have also proposed to extend CABR by 4 kms to connect the Blue Line with the airport, saving City of Calgary the estimated $650 million cost of a standalone Airport Transit Line.
Over 50% of the capital costs of CABR will be in the airport to downtown section which represents about 10% of the total distance.
Finally construction cost inflation and rising interest rates have significantly increased the cost of all infrastructure projects.
Operating costs estimates are also now significantly higher than in the government studies due to higher service levels, greater frequencies and inflationary pressures.
Under the public-private-partnership model (P3), design changes can be maintained proportionate to ridership revenues and other benefits. Ridership revenues are much stronger now than forecast in the government studies meaning that the government contribution can remain proportionate to the benefits and remain, on a like for like basis, capped at $30 million per month.